Why Conversion, Why Now
A Small Share of Fuel Cost. The Step in Shortest Supply.
Conversion is the step with the fewest Western plants. The United States has one operating conversion facility, built in 1958.
The Fuel Cycle
A Utility Cannot Enrich What It Has Not Converted
Light-water and most advanced reactor fuel follows a fixed sequence: mining and milling produce uranium concentrate (U3O8); conversion turns it into uranium hexafluoride (UF6); enrichment raises the U-235 content; fuel fabrication turns enriched uranium into pellets and assemblies. Conversion is the narrowest link. A small number of facilities worldwide serve the entire Western fleet, and new capacity requires specialized chemical engineering, an NRC license and a multi-year build.
Supply
Three Facilities Supply Western Conversion; One Is in the United States
Five primary suppliers, in Russia, China, France, Canada and the United States, account for more than 80% of the world's conversion output. Essentially all Western primary conversion comes from three facilities. The U.S. facility, Metropolis Works in Illinois, was built in 1958. Its nameplate was reduced to 7,000 tU/year in 2017, and it was idled from 2018 to 2023. Domestic production covers roughly one-third of what U.S. reactors consume; the balance has historically been imported, with Russia supplying the largest share.
| Facility | Country | Operator | Capacity (tU/year) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Hope | Canada | Cameco | 12,500 | Licensed capacity; record output of 11.2 million kgU as UF6 in 2025; operating license up for renewal in 2027 |
| Philippe Coste, Tricastin | France | Orano | ~15,000 | Commissioned 2018 to replace the previous plant; more than 12,000 t UF6 produced in 2025 |
| Metropolis Works | United States | Solstice Advanced Materials (marketed by ConverDyn) | 7,000 | Built 1958; nameplate reduced in 2017; expansion engineering under study |
Capacities as published by the operators (Cameco 2025 annual MD&A; Orano Tricastin site information; Solstice Advanced Materials, February 2026), as of 16 October 2026. Russian and Chinese capacity serves principally domestic and non-Western markets.
Demand
A 10 to 15 Million kgU per Year Western Supply Gap Opens in the Mid-2030s
Western conversion demand grows from three sources: continued operation, life extension and uprating of the existing fleet; new large reactors; and small modular and advanced reactors. Announced data-center, manufacturing and defense loads add to demand. On current projections the Western conversion market falls short of requirements by 10 to 15 million kgU per year from the mid-2030s, even after allowing for expansion at existing plants and the restart of idled capacity.
Because conversion is contracted years ahead of reactor reloads, most North American and much European conversion demand for 2035 is not yet contracted, and deliveries after 2035 will be contracted over the next few years. Utilities entering the re-contracting cycle of the late 2030s will seek new capacity in the early 2030s, the window in which FluxPoint begins commercial operation.
Three Features of the Market
- Security of supply outranks price. Conversion costs a reactor on the order of a dollar per megawatt-hour, a small fraction of its fuel cost. Operators buy assurance and portfolio diversification, and value a domestic, modern supplier over the lowest bid.
- Contracts run long. Operators have typically covered three to five years ahead; the market is moving to longer terms as supply tightens.
- New reactors begin with UF6. Every fuel form, including TRISO fuel for advanced reactors, starts from converted uranium.
Prices
Conversion Prices Have More Than Doubled Since 2022
North American spot conversion rose from about $27 per kilogram of uranium in early 2022 to a peak near $97 at the end of 2024 as Russian supply left Western markets, and stood at $64.50 in June 2026. Long-term prices, the basis for most contracted volume, have doubled since the end of 2022, from $27.25 to $55.50 per kilogram.
Show the figures as a table
| Quarter-End | Spot ($/kgU) | Long-Term ($/kgU) |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2022 | 26.63 | 22.50 |
| Jun 2022 | 32.75 | 26.25 |
| Sep 2022 | 38.00 | 26.75 |
| Dec 2022 | 40.00 | 27.25 |
| Mar 2023 | 39.75 | 27.88 |
| Jun 2023 | 40.75 | 30.75 |
| Sep 2023 | 40.88 | 31.50 |
| Dec 2023 | 46.00 | 34.25 |
| Jun 2024 | 60.00 | n/a |
| Sep 2024 | 72.00 | n/a |
| Dec 2024 | 97.00 | 50.00 |
| Mar 2025 | 81.00 | 50.00 |
| Jun 2025 | 69.00 | 50.50 |
| Sep 2025 | 63.50 | 52.25 |
| Dec 2025 | 61.50 | 53.63 |
| Mar 2026 | 62.50 | 55.25 |
| Jun 2026 | 64.50 | 55.50 |
Policy
Federal Policy Now Treats Conversion as a Strategic Capability
Russian Uranium Import Ban
The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, enacted in May 2024, bars imports of unirradiated low-enriched uranium produced in Russia through 2040, with Department of Energy waivers available only until 1 January 2028. Russian enriched product, and the Russian conversion embedded in it, leaves the U.S. market; Russia has in turn restricted exports to U.S. buyers.
Critical Mineral and Conversion Capacity
Uranium was added to the U.S. Geological Survey's critical minerals list in November 2025, and an executive order directs the Department of Energy to develop a plan to expand domestic uranium conversion capacity.
Federal Financing and Demand
The Department of Energy's Energy Dominance Financing program offers loan guarantees for domestic energy infrastructure, and the National Nuclear Security Administration has signaled demand for unobligated U.S.-origin uranium and conversion services into the 2040s.
- Cameco Corporation, 2025 annual and 2026 quarterly management's discussion and analysis (conversion price indicators; Port Hope capacity and output). cameco.com/invest/markets/uranium-price
- Orano, Tricastin site and annual activity reports (Philippe Coste plant). orano.group
- Solstice Advanced Materials, press release of 10 February 2026 on expansion of uranium conversion production at Metropolis Works.
- World Nuclear News, "New US company plans uranium conversion facility", 30 March 2026. world-nuclear-news.org
- U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-26-107385 (executive direction on domestic conversion capacity). gao.gov
- U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Dominance Financing program. energy.gov/lpo
- UxC and TradeTech market indicators; World Nuclear Association; U.S. Energy Information Administration nuclear fuel data. eia.gov/nuclear